by Mashaka
You can beat the media, magazines and sportscasters preseason polls by following the criteria provided herein. I have used this criteria to defeat most pollsters for the past 15 years.
Do not let anyone fool you by saying they can predict college football games. There are too many 18 and 19 year old youngsters that determine the outcome of games. So be real. How dependable and predictable were you at 19? My point exactly!
Furthermore, the pollsters that publish the most detail team data get it very wrong. For example, most did not rank the following teams in the 2015 preseason top 40: 8. Houston, 9. Iowa, 11. Michigan. 15. North Carolina. Many had the following teams ranked higher than No. 15: 2. Clemson, 5. Oklahoma, 10. Old Miss.
Criteria Section 1
- Previous Season’s Record
Last season’s record is the baseline. Teams will do better or worse this year depending on unforeseen factors and primarily the factors listed below.
- Players Lost and Gained
The number and quality of starting players lost or gained is the biggest factor, because new players are unproven. The quarterback receives more weight in the analysis. Few teams are the exception. The offensive and defensive unit’s strengths and weaknesses are the second biggest factor.
- Quarterbacks Dominate
The quarterback receives more weight depending on the division and the offensive scheme. Two of the few exceptions are Alabama and Michigan, who are less quarterback dependent. Teams like Oregon, Auburn and Baylor are heavily quarterback dependent.
- Head Coaches and Coordinators
Ranking the coaches is critical, because they have significant weight in wins and losses. I believe in the old phrase, “I can take mine and beat yours. I can take yours and beat mine.” For example, Kansas State’s Coach Snyder often beats teams with superior talent.
“The tie could be broke this year between Nick Sabin and Urban Meyer on who the best college football head coach is”
If Nick Sabin wins the national championship with only 3 defensive starters returning
If Urban Meyer can win a game in the national championship playoff with only 3 offensive starters returning and only 3 defensive starters returning
- Strength of Schedule and Back-to-Back Tough Opponents
Teams with top coaching staffs and more time to prepare may defeat tough opponents with less time to prepare. A team that plays 5 tough opponents in a row is another story. Take for instance the schedules of Stanford and Oklahoma who have equally tough schedules. Stanford has 5 tough games in a row without a bye week. Oklahoma has no tough back-to-back opponents in the regular season. Stanford is not expected to make the division championships, and Oklahoma is projected to be in the national championship playoffs.
Criteria Section 2
- Previous Season’s Record
A majority of teams ranked in the 2016 preseason top 4 had a baseline ranking of 1 through 6 in 2015. Only LSU and Michigan were ranked higher than 10 in 2015. The chart below will show why these 2 teams jumped into the 2016 preseason top 4 ranking.
| Preseason Polls 2016 | ||||
| AP & Coaches* | Mashaka | Final 2015 | See Criteria: | |
| Alabama | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3, 5 |
| Clemson | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2, 3, 5 |
| Oklahoma | 3 | 1 | 5 | 3, 5 |
| Florida St | 4 | 6 | 6 | 3, 5 |
| Ohio State | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2, 5 |
| LSU | 5 | 2 | 16 | 2, 5 |
| Michigan | 7 | 4 | 11 | 2, 5 |
| * – Averaged | ||||
2. Players Lost and Gained
Oklahoma is my No. 1 team, because they have a balanced team of players returning with no significant loss of players. The others factors are no back-to-back tough opponents and assuming Alabama will not make the playoffs. Nick Sabin’s team won the national championship in the 2015 season with only 3 returning offense players. Getting to the playoffs in 2016, with only 3 returning on defense 3 back-to-back tough opponents, is another matter.
| Returning Starters 2016 | ||||
| QB | Offense | Defense | Total | |
| Alabama | New | 5 | 6 | 11 |
| Clemson | Super Star | 8 | 4 | 12 |
| Oklahoma | All Star | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| Florida St | New | 11 | 6 | 17 |
| Ohio State | Star | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| LSU | Return | 8 | 9 | 17 |
| Michigan | New | 8 | 6 | 14 |
- Quarterbacks Dominate
Here is how quarterbacks affect the expected national championship playoff teams:
Alabama (-) A new quarterback doesn’t weigh much in the winning equation.
Clemson (+ + +) Their returning super star quarterback gives this team a huge edge.
Oklahoma (+ + +) This returning all-star quarterback makes all the difference.
Florida State (-) The new quarterback will make or break this experienced team.
Ohio State (+ +) There returning star quarterback is the only hope for this team which returns on 3 starting players on offense and 3 on defense.
LSU (-) The returning quarterback is one of the 10 returning offensive starters. It’s on his shoulders not to blow it.
Michigan (+) Bringing in an experience quarterback is all that is needed.
Key: + Advantage – No advantage
- Head Coaches and Coordinators
All top teams expected to make the national championship playoffs have top coaching staffs. LSU’s coaches need to get more out of their exceptional players, who flood the NFL yearly. I am betting on it, because their jobs are really on the line this year. Please note that I only give a No. 1 ranking to coaches who have won a national championship.
| Coaches Ranking 2016 | ||||
| Head Coach | Offensive Coaches | Defensive Coaches | Comments | |
| Alabama | 1 | 2 | 2 | Lost top D-coordinator |
| Clemson | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Oklahoma | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| Florida St | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Ohio State | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| LSU | 3 | 4 | 2 | Coaches underperform |
| Michigan | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
- Strength of Schedule and Back-to-Back Tough Opponents
Alabama has the toughest schedule based on quality of opponents, the 3 tough games back-to-back, and only 1 of 7 tough games played at home. Stanford and Mississippi are 2 other teams that won’t make the national championship playoffs for similar reasons. Stanford has an unbelievable 5 tough game streak with only 2 of those games at home.
| Strength of Schedule Before Championship Playoff | |
| Alabama | Toughest – Worse in the nation of top 25 teams; 2 losses |
| Clemson | Easy – Weak schedule; no early season tough games |
| Oklahoma | Tough – Advantage in getting into playoffs |
| Florida St | Mild – Two SEC tough games is an advantage. |
| Ohio State | Tough – Oklahoma is big non-conference, an advantage. |
| LSU | Tough – Alabama and 3 other tough games are at home. |
| Michigan | Easy – Have only 3 tough game; all away |
| Back-to-Back Tough Opponents Through Division Championships | ||
| Alabama | Tough – At Arkansas, at Tennessee, Texas A&M at home | |
| Clemson | Easy – No back-to-back tough games | |
| Oklahoma | Easy – One back-to-back tough game series | |
| Florida St | Mild – Two back-to-back game series | |
| Ohio State | Easy – One back-to-back tough game series | |
| LSU | Easy – One back-to-back tough game series | |
| Michigan | Easy – One back-to-back tough game series | |
Summary
You can see why I have doubts about Alabama, Mississippi and Stanford reaching the national championship playoffs. Also, you may see why Oklahoma and Michigan have the best path to the playoffs. LSU should make it if their coaches and quarterback don’t blow it. Clemson should make it with a powerful offense to balance a slightly weaker defense.
In a Nutshell
“The seasons comes down to these few factors.”
- Alabama – Can they navigate the toughest schedule of the contenders?
- Oklahoma – Can they not stumble “as usual”?
- LSU and Florida State – Can they get enough good quarterback play to defeat Alabama and Clemson?
| Easy Does It; Scheduling Easy | ||
| Clemson | ||
| Michigan | ||
| Houston | ||
| Tough Schedule; Few Back-To-Back | ||
| Oklahoma | ||
| LSU | ||
| Ohio State | ||
| Schedule; Too Tough | ||
| Alabama | ||
| Mississippi | ||
| Stanford | ||